"Da die neu gemeldeten Corona-Fälle um den 30. März herum ihren Höhepunkt erreichten, müssen die tatsächlichen Neuinfektionen, die man nicht direkt beobachten kann, rund 17 Tage zuvor, also am 13. März, ihr Maximum erreicht haben", schrieb der Ökonom und Direktor des Instituts für Öffentliche Finanzen der Universität Hannover in einem Gastbeitrag für die Düsseldorfer "Rheinische Post".
Die Schulschließung und der Lockdown der Geschäfte und damit großer Teile der Wirtschaft sei erst am 16. (Schulen) beziehungsweise 23. März erfolgt. Die Verzögerung in den Fallzahlen der US-Universität sei damit zu erklären, dass "zwischen Infektion und Meldung nach Schätzung des bundeseigenen Robert Koch Instituts (RKI) zwei bis drei Wochen vergehen". Diese Zahlen seien "schwerlich vereinbar mit der These, nur Schulschließungen und Lockdown hätten Schlimmeres verhindert". Der Professor plädiert für eine Aufhebung der Lockdown-Maßnahmen. In der Fachwelt hatten die Thesen Homburgs teilweise scharfe Kritik hervorgerufen. pm, ots
English version
The finance scientist and economics professor Stefan Homburg has confirmed his thesis that the corona-related lockdown is unnecessary with recent case numbers from Johns Hopkins University. Even according to their figures of new diagnoses, the peak of infections with the novel coronavirus in Germany would have already occurred in mid-March, i.e. before the closure of schools and large parts of the economy.
"Since the newly reported corona cases peaked around 30th March, the actual new infections, which cannot be observed directly, must have reached their maximum around 17 days earlier, i.e. on 13th March," wrote the economist and director of the Institute of Public Finance at the University of Hanover in a guest article for the Düsseldorf "Rheinische Post" newspaper.
The closure of schools and the lockdown of shops and thus of large parts of the economy had only taken place on 16 (schools) and 23 March respectively. The delay in the number of cases at the US university can be explained by the fact that "according to estimates by the federal Robert Koch Institute (RKI), two to three weeks pass between infection and notification". These figures were "hardly compatible with the thesis that only school closures and lockdowns had prevented worse things from happening". The professor pleads for a lifting of the lockdown measures. In the professional world, Homburg's theses had partly provoked sharp criticism. pm, ots, mei